Execs brace for volatility as AI, macro risks dominate insurers' emerging risk radar for 2026
Insurers' senior risk leaders see 2026 as a year likely to be dominated by macroeconomic and geopolitical undertainty, but expect tech, particularly AI, to drive the next major shift in their risk landscape, according to the 19th Annual Emerging Risks Survey from the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA).
The study, based on 350 respondents across insurance and financial services, defined emerging risks as new risks or familiar risks that become apparent under new conditions. It includes more than 100 C-suite participants, including chief risk officers, chief actuaries and other senior leaders.
Among C-suite respondents, the single risk most often selected as having the greatest impact in 2026 was greater‑than‑normal financial volatility (25%), followed by geoeconomic and globalization shifts (19%) and extreme weather events (14%). AI adverse outcomes and cyber events each attracted 8%.
By risk category, 34% of C-suite respondents chose an economic risk as most impactful to their organization in 2026, with 26% selecting geopolitical risks. That picture is broadly consistent with recent Swiss Re research, which highlighted “growth in the shadow of (geo)politics,” slower global GDP and persistent inflation through 2027, characterizing a structurally “riskier world” for insurers.
For insurance balance sheets, that combination means investment portfolios exposed to rate and spread volatility and liability books sensitive to inflation, supply chain disruption and political instability. Swiss Re expects global nonlife premium growth to stay positive but slow as rate momentum fades and new cost pressures build into claims.
Looking three or more years ahead, 60% of C-suite respondents said technological and economic risks will have the greatest impact on their organizations, with adverse AI outcomes and greater‑than‑normal financial volatility cited as the most impactful individual risks.
Across all respondents, technology-related threats, which includes AI misuse and disruptive technologies being used more broadly, have appeared among the top three emerging risks in every survey since 2023.
Meanwhile, regulation is moving in parallel. In the US, all 50 states introduced some form of AI‑related legislation during the 2025 session, and states such as California are implementing laws that treat certain “high‑risk” AI systems used in consequential decisions as regulated activities. State insurance regulators are also issuing guidance on AI use in pricing, underwriting and claims, emphasizing governance, transparency and nondiscrimination.
For carriers, AI is emerging as a dual-track risk, resulting in potential adverse outcomes from failure or misuse and regulatory or liability exposure if AI-driven decisions are not explainable or are deemed unfair. Some insurers have already responded via coverage, with Verisk introducing optional endorsements excluding AI-related liabilities from commercial general liability forms, while several US carriers are seeking approval to add AI exclusions.
On the risk combinations front, the most common first‑selected combination by risk category was two technological risks (14%), followed by economic and environmental, and economic and technological pairings (each 12%).
Meanwhile, environmental risks remain significant. Extreme weather events were the third‑most impactful specific risk for 2026 among C‑suite respondents, and long‑term climate change continues to feature in the broader sample.
Compared with earlier surveys, however, climate is increasingly treated as an embedded, managed risk rather than a new threat. Large carriers now commonly use climate scenarios, portfolio steering tools and underwriting guidelines, even as Swiss Re and others warn that structurally higher catastrophe losses driven by both primary and secondary perils are part of a “new normal” for P&C profitability.
R. Dale Hall, managing director of research at the SOA, said the results show a “shift from geopolitical and economic concerns in 2026 toward technology‑driven risks three or more years out,” along with growing awareness of how risks can migrate between categories.
The challenge for insurers now is ensuring that emerging‑risk processes, capital models and product strategies evolve fast enough to keep up before these concerns are reflected in loss experience and capital charges.
