Commercial lines rate momentum cools but pressure remains, Ivans Index shows
US commercial insurance buyers saw some relief in February, with premium renewal rate changes easing across most major lines, according to the latest Ivans Index data.
However, with increases still firmly in positive territory for all lines except workers' compensation, the environment looks more like a moderating hard market than a genuinely soft one.
Ivans reported that year-over-year, commercial auto, business owners' policy (BOP), general liability, commercial property and umbrella all posted higher average premium renewal rates in February 2026. Workers' compensation was the only major line to record a decline on a year-over-year basis. Month over month, the pace of change slowed in most segments.
Umbrella once again posted the highest average renewal rate change among the tracked lines at 8.84%, despite the pullback from January. That aligns with broker reports that, although capacity has improved compared with the tightest phase of the hard market, excess casualty remains under close scrutiny. Concerns over social inflation, large jury awards and liability catastrophe events continue to shape underwriting appetite and structure.
Commercial property, at 7.05%, also remains firmly in positive territory. While February’s figure is slightly lower than January’s 7.22%, it extends a multi‑year run of elevated property pricing driven by inflation in repair and replacement costs, higher reinsurance expenses and a run of heavy US catastrophe losses. For property‑heavy or catastrophe‑exposed accounts, brokers continue to report challenging renewals in which valuation adequacy, deductibles and sublimits are as important as the top‑line rate.
BOP’s 6.81% average renewal rate change, only marginally below January’s level of 6.89%, suggests smaller commercial insureds are still absorbing cumulative rating action, even where some carriers have begun to compete more actively on better-performing segments.
The move in general liability to 7.01% indicates that underwriters remain cautious, particularly on classes exposed to US litigation trends. Jury behavior, litigation funding and social inflation continue to influence carrier appetite, prompting more granular differentiation by sector, limit profile and loss history.
Commercial auto’s easing to 5.18% from 5.62% in January still represents a meaningful increase, but may signal that the steepest part of the rate cycle has passed for some risks. Claim frequency and severity in auto remain elevated, pressured by medical inflation, parts and labor costs and large verdicts, especially in trucking.
As a result, underwriting discipline around fleet safety, telematics and driver quality is likely to remain a key factor, even if headline rate changes drift lower.
Workers’ compensation continues to be the standout soft line, with February’s average renewal rate change at -1.43%. Although that is a smaller decrease than the -2.17% seen in January, it still reflects ongoing downward pressure on pricing.
Strong underwriting profitability, benign loss trends in many jurisdictions and competition for accounts have combined to keep workers’ comp rates under strain.
For multi‑line buyers, the line often provides a partial offset to higher costs elsewhere, though there are signs that carriers are becoming more selective on accounts with deteriorating experience or emerging medical inflation issues.
The Ivans Index is based on more than 120 million data transactions and tracks renewal rate change year over year for a consistent policy, across more than 38,000 agencies and 700 carriers and MGAs. It offers a broad, transactional view of how renewal pricing is moving in the US commercial market, rather than focusing on a single segment or book of business.
The February results suggest that while the hard market has clearly peaked in some lines, technical pricing in property and excess casualty still has ground to make up, keeping average increases elevated. Workers’ comp continues to act as a drag on overall rate adequacy, raising strategic questions around growth versus profitability. Liability and auto remain sensitive to loss‑cost inflation and verdict trends, with modest average movements masking significant variation by class and individual account.
For brokers, the data provides a benchmark for managing client expectations. While some buyers may anticipate a quick return to flat or falling rates, the Ivans figures indicate that, outside workers’ comp, most commercial lines remain in an environment of positive - if moderating - rate movement.
